DATA DRIVEN INSIGHTS

 2019 Coverage Universe

Demand Inflections


Our unique technology driven ensemble focused on measuring changes in promotional activity, email read/delete rates, email order confirms and online checkout conversions helps uncover inflections in consumer demand


Online Engagement


With a robust international web panel our intelligence dissects organic online engagement trends for over 150 consumer brands.

Email Confirmations


For several hundred brands we are able to track new sign up related email confirmations.



Online Purchases


Within the web panel, our intelligence sepearates specific pages that relate to conversions and aggregate these to make inferences on online ordering activity, marketing efficiency and new subscribers and more.


Email Promotional Cadence


Our email panel with more than 1 million unique inbox is coupled with our intelligence to trend promotional cadence and aggressiveness of more than 100 leading brands.


Proprietary

Email Intelligence

Random Walk is a technology driven independent firm focused on quantifying changes in how large public brands are interacting with their leads and customers and then measuring the consumer’s response.

Data Driven

Maintaining An Edge

Our combination of proprietary and third party data gathers more than a dozen disparate signals measuring engagement. This ensemble of metrics is used to generate a robust signal.

 Predictive

Forecasting Operating Trends

Since inception in 2011, our forecasts have been more predictive than FactSet consensus every year, with an accuracy rate exceeding 63%. Our process also uncovered 16 major inflections, following which share prices have moved in excess of 40%.

 Our Service

Actionable Investment Insight

We uncover real-time inflections in demand.  Our clients are alerted to these unforeseen changes in consumer trends and how they could impact growth trajectories.

In Store Visitor Traffic Trends

Our proprietary intelligence quantifies promotions and offers to multiple cohorts to create a more accurate depiction of promotional activity

Michaels(MIK): Explosive growth in steep discounting email promotions

Brand In Store Foot Traffic

Granularity down to specific stores and days our systems detect shifts in consumer preferences before the Street and quarterly earnings.

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Bloomingdale's (M): Foot Traffic Trends

Consumer Inbox Tracking

Our proprietary real-time access to over a million unique anonymized email inboxes allows unparalleled insight into consumer preferences. Our analytics track email order volumes, changes in promotional cadence, and read/delete trends over time.

JC PENNY (JCP): Explosive growth in promotional email campaigns

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Purchase Review Volumes
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Our intelligence systems scan, filter and measure review volumes for leading consumer products. We measure demand trends for growing categories and new competitive entrants.

"Bed in the Box" Review Volume Growth Trends

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Social Media Response Volumes

For consumer brands our systems monitor and aggregate response volumes for Facebook and Instagram. These volumes are cleansed of noise to allow comparisons of

Declining Social Interest in Michael Kors (KORS) Handbags

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IDENTIFYING INFLECTIONS

Our systems use robust real time data to detect when demand for key products and services could be changing

Changes in Promotional Cadence

Our email intelligence quantifies changes in how key brands are interacting with leads and customers.

Robust Signal

We utilize multiple data sets to help ensure a more robust signal indicative of real world demand trends.

ALPHA GENERATION

Unhindered by the requirement of publishing buy/sell/hold recommendations and price targets, our projections are unbiased and don’t herd around the mean. 34 times during the fast rising market of 2014, our data indicated dramatically slowing sales trends. These equities declined a cumulative 232%.

232%

CUMULATIVE DECLINE OF ‘SLOWING’ LIST


MAJOR DEVIATIONS

Since 2011, there have been several instances when our measures of engagements have been unanimous in indicating a significant deviation between current business trends and street expectations for growth.

RECENT 40%+ MOVES POST-IDENTIFICATION

ANF, ANGI, COH, FIT, GNC, GRUB, KORS, OSTK, SALE, SEAS, SIG, SHOP, WEB, WIX, WTW, ZU

PAST PREDICTIONS

Over the past four years, we’ve consistently topped FactSet consensus for current quarter revenues. Each year our accuracy rate has exceeded 60%.

2015 (78 Deviations) 68%

2014 (82 Deviations) 64%

2013 (76 Deviations) 67%

2012 (67 Deviations) 66%

TEAM: FOCUSED ON TECHNOLOGY

Instead of focusing on sales and trading, or creating price targets, valuation analysis, industry reports or running “surveys” loaded with confirmation bias, our team is focused on developing the most predictive technology. Our tools, systems and data partners capture the most meaningful and unforeseen changes in consumer shopping habits. Our resources are invested in software developers, search engine marketing and optimization tools, reliable 3rd party data partnerships and proprietary web crawling analytics. We don’t rely on any single piece of data or small samples, but instead generate a robust signal with more consistency.

FOUNDER, GREG ROBIN

Gregory Robin, Founded Random Walk in 2011

Greg Robin is the founder of Random Walk.  He has over fifteen years experience in technology and finance.  He holds a Masters in Computer Science with a focus on distributed systems.  His prior experience on the sell-side as series 86/87 financial analyst covering special situations in the consumer sector.  He has worked with over a dozen publicly traded companies on search engine optimization.  

DATA SCIENTIST, STEPHEN MCMURTY

stephenmcmurty

Stephen McMurtry leads the technology process at Random Walk. He holds a BSc in Physics and Mathematics and a Masters of Applied Science. He has more than 4 years of industry experience creating mathematical models and preparing analysis to help others make data driven decisions. Stephen has produced data visualizations for the web that have been viewed more than one million times.

FORENSIC ACCOUNTANT, TIM GILLIHAN

TimGillihan

Timothy Gillihan leads the forecasting process, projecting key financial metrics based on Random Walk’s proprietary data. He has over ten years of experience analyzing publicly traded companies across all industries and regularly testifies as an accounting and economic expert witness in federal and state courts. Tim has interviewed hundreds of C-level executives regarding accounting practices, financial results, and expected future performance. Extensive knowledge of industry benchmarks and performance standards.

WE’RE IN SAN DIEGO

To help protect our clients’ edge we maintain a narrow distribution. Give us a call to see if we can work together.

CONTACT US

Random Walk Financial
444 W C St. Ste. 220
San Diego, CA 92101

   

  email: sales AT ranwalk DOT com