Random Walk’s technology driven data ensemble helps investors identify potential inflections before they are priced in. Utilizing a combination of several email and web consumer panels our systems identify and report changes in consumer preferences for key products and services.
With a robust international web panel our intelligence dissects organic online engagement trends for over 150 consumer brands.
For several hundred brands we are able to track new sign up related email confirmations.
Within the web panel, our intelligence separates checkout pages that relate to conversions and aggregate these to make inferences on online ordering activity, marketing efficiency and new subscribers and more.
Random Walk’s technology parses and categorizes millions of emails from over 150 brands to accurately quantify changes in promotional cadence and discounting, new customer acquisitions and purchasing habits.
Random Walk is a technology driven independent firm focused on quantifying changes in how large public brands are interacting with their leads and customers and then measuring the consumer’s response.
Our combination of proprietary and third party data gathers more than a dozen disparate signals measuring engagement. This ensemble of metrics is used to generate a robust signal.
Since inception in 2011, our forecasts have been more predictive than FactSet consensus every year, with an accuracy rate exceeding 63%. Our process also uncovered 16 major inflections, following which share prices have moved in excess of 40%.
We uncover real-time inflections in demand. Our clients are alerted to these unforeseen changes in consumer trends and how they could impact growth trajectories.
Our proprietary email intelligence quantifies changes in how aggressive brands are in "pushing" offers to their current customers and lead base.
August 2019: Our proprietary categorization system altered investors that ULTA began sending a wide range of 25% off, $10 off and other promotions to different cohorts in the Summer of 2019. Soon after ULTA reported an-earnings miss and $100 share price decline.
Our systems help investors decipher whether increases in revenues are driven by increasing demand for produucts or just sharp discounts.
December 2016: In late 2016, several well-followed analysts, likely motivated by bullish credit card transactional data promoted JCP as retail turn around candidate. However, our email intelligence successfully identified explosive growth in email promotions. This helped alert investors that the increases in revenues the credit-card data was showing was not organic and instead a result of steep70-80% off sales.
Our proprietary real-time access to over a million unique anonymized email inboxes allows unparalleled insight into consumer adaption rates of novel products and services.
January 2019: Heading into 2019 our email intelligence alterted our investor partners to a sharp delcine in tne number of customers receiving "new account activation" related emails. Soon after EB reported worse than expects results slicing shares in half.
Our email intelligence helps investors understand how much "push" is rqeuired to create a sale
October 2017: While analysis and media were squaking about a potential GPRO turnaround surrounding the release of the HERO 6, our data indentified an all-time record volume of promotinal emails and sharp discounting of the HERO 5. The weakness in demand our systems identified foreshadowed tepid holiday sales and share prices collapsed nearly 50%.
Our web panel data ensemble goes far beyond generic mass disseminated web traffic. For nearly 100 brands, we are able to track activity to the actual checkout URL pages.
July 2019. Despite alot of enthusiam around AI, machine learning and "fashion tech" our analysis of online checkouts for recent IPO Farfetch indicated rapid slowing in consumer checkouts. After reporting rapidly decelerating sales, FTCH share prices dove more than 40%.
Our systems use robust real time data to detect when demand for key products and services could be changing
Changes in Promotional Cadence
Explosions in steep discounting coupons
Changes in how brands target customer cohorts
Captures in subject line aggressiveness
Instead of focusing on sales and trading, or creating price targets, valuation analysis, industry reports or running “surveys” loaded with confirmation bias, our team is focused on developing the most predictive technology. Our tools, systems and data partners capture the most meaningful and unforeseen changes in consumer shopping habits. Our resources are invested in software developers, search engine marketing and optimization tools, reliable 3rd party data partnerships and proprietary web crawling analytics. We don’t rely on any single piece of data or small samples, but instead generate a robust signal with more consistency.
Greg Robin is the founder of Random Walk. He has over fifteen years experience in technology and finance. He holds a Masters in Computer Science with a focus on distributed systems. His prior experience on the sell-side as series 86/87 financial analyst covering special situations in the consumer sector. He has worked with over a dozen publicly traded companies on search engine optimization.
Stephen McMurtry leads the technology process at Random Walk. He holds a BSc in Physics and Mathematics and a Masters of Applied Science. He has more than 4 years of industry experience creating mathematical models and preparing analysis to help others make data driven decisions. Stephen has produced data visualizations for the web that have been viewed more than one million times.
Timothy Gillihan leads the forecasting process, projecting key financial metrics based on Random Walk’s proprietary data. He has over ten years of experience analyzing publicly traded companies across all industries and regularly testifies as an accounting and economic expert witness in federal and state courts. Tim has interviewed hundreds of C-level executives regarding accounting practices, financial results, and expected future performance. Extensive knowledge of industry benchmarks and performance standards.
To help protect our clients’ edge we maintain a narrow distribution. Give us a call to see if we can work together.
Random Walk Financial
444 W C St. Ste. 220
San Diego, CA 92101
email: sales AT ranwalk DOT com