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Promotional Ensemble Uncovers Inflection in VFC

   27 Jan 2023

 VFC USE CASE – Q3 2022

In August, Random Walk identified particularly explosive growth in all categories measuring promotional intensity for (VFC) top brands North Face and Vans. Our system was capturing levels of email discounting never seen before in our 6 years of data capture. Random Walk alerted clients to a potentially severe supply and demand mismatch for the Company’s largest apparel and footwear brands. Subsequently, the Company lowered its earnings outlook on three sperate occasions in approximately two months and announced the retirement of its longstanding Chairman and CEO.

CORPORATE AND RW HIGHLIGHTS ENSUING FROM AUGUST 15 NEGATIVE INFLECTION

 

§  Our measure of significant North Face discounts increased 462% vs PY

§  Significant discount volumes for Vans increased 185% vs PY

§  VFC shares sunk 41% to end 2022

§  Inventory rose 17% QoQ

§  The Chairman/CEO resigned

§  FY2023 earnings outlook was revised down on 3 separate occasions

§  Analyst EPS consensus for FY2023 was adjusted down by 32%­­

 

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Category :

  • Case Studies
  • / Negative Inflections

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