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30% Annual Returns: Random Walk Portfolio Utilizing Promotional Intelligence

30% Annual Returns: Random Walk Portfolio Utilizing Promotional Intelligence

Robust 5 year returns with no correlations to the major averages

Superior Performance from 2017-2021

Walking Earnings Signals, performance is as follows for entering a trade on the day before the earnings event and exiting on the earnings event date. In practice, the signal would be available shortly after the end of the fiscal quarter and an investor would have a few weeks between the end of the quarter and the earnings announcement date to build this position

Promotional Activity Predicts Share Performance

In this study we’ve illustrated a use case in which a company’s promotional activity data can be used to successfully predict how that company’s stock will move at its next earnings announcement. With strong standalone performance, this study demonstrates that the promotional data can be a valuable input into the decision making process of both discretionary and systematic investors who wish to adjust positions, confirm positions, or discover new trading opportunities heading into earnings events.

Discretionary investors may also wish to use this data to identify inflection points (both positive and negative) in consumer stocks for opportunistic strategies or use this data to identify downside risk for existing positions. Systematic investors may wish to derive ranks with monthly or weekly frequency based on these inputs to drive a long/short decile portfolio.

contact us to inquire about adding the promotional ensemble as a data feed

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