All posts by Greg Robin

Data through July 5

Promotional Outlier: Worsening

Send volumes up sharply. Total promotional volume for the month is 220.6M vs 150.7M last year, +46%, even though the campaign count is basically flat (154 vs 162, actually down slightly). That means each individual blast is reaching a lot more inboxes — the top sends this year hit ~4.0–4.2M in projected volume versus ~2.7–2.8M for last year’s top sends, roughly 45-50% bigger.

Clearance-flagged emails are up 54% (20 vs 13), and the messaging pattern shifted: last year clearance pushes clustered around two windows (early-mid June, then a July 4th flurry), with real gaps between. This year “Extra 70% off clearance” runs as a near-constant drumbeat from 6/10 through 7/5, barely a week without a repeat send.

Standout campaigns: the recurring “Extra 70% off clearance” series is the dominant theme this year, appearing in some form on 11 different days

Data Updated: July 5

Promotional Outlier: Worsening

Fewer emails, but much deeper and more frequent big-discount pushes. Promotional sends dropped from 82 to 61 (-26%), but total email volume rose 19% (68M vs 57M reach) — fewer, bigger blasts. Campaigns flagged “significant” discount nearly doubled: 24 this year vs 13 last year.

50%-off became the go-to headline, repeatedly. This year hit “up to 50% off” five separate times — Father’s Day (6/9), a Father’s Day repeat (6/15), Stars & Stripes July 4th (6/23), and the last-minute July 4th push (7/3, sent twice). Last year’s deepest Father’s Day offer only reached 40% off (tested across 5 near-identical subject lines on 6/9), and the only 50%-off email all month was an unrelated pet-Rx autoship promo (6/19) — not tied to a holiday.

Data through July 5

Promotional Outlier: Negative

Comparing kroger.com’s last 4 weeks (6/8–7/5/26) to the same weeks last year, via Random Walk:

Volume is way up. Total promotional email volume: ~209M vs ~128M PY (+64%). Unique campaign/creative count: 227 vs 175 (+30%). Read volume grew slower than send volume (13.3M vs 11.9M, +12%), suggesting more inbox pressure without proportional engagement.

Discounts got deeper. Peak advertised discount hit 50% this year (BOGO 50% off pet treats, 50% off Boost membership, up-to-50%-off hydration) vs a 30% ceiling last year (30% off hydration was the deepest cut in 2025). Among campaigns carrying an explicit discount, average max discount is ~47% now vs ~29% PY.

More “steep” discount flags. Random Walk tagged 8 unique campaigns as steep this period vs 0 last year — concentrated around the Boost membership push and pet-treats BOGO in late June.

Mechanic shifts:

• Delivery incentive jumped from $20 off (first order)/$10 off (next order) last year to a flat $30 off + unlimited free delivery this year.
• A new lever appeared: 50%-off Boost membership pushes (multiple emails 6/25–6/28), something last year’s Boost messaging ($100 statement credit) didn’t do.
• The recurring “buy 5+, save $1 each” mechanic is present in both years, largely unchanged.
• Produce discounting changed shape: “$4 off $30 produce” (2025) vs a straight “20% off fresh fruit & veg” (2026).
• No clearance-flagged campaigns in either period — that lever isn’t in play.

Net: Kroger is emailing more often, discounting deeper, and leaning harder on membership (Boost) and delivery incentives than a year ago.

Data through July 5

Promotional Outlier: Improving

Hey Dude (CROX) — dramatically less promotional than PY. Hey Dude gutted its email intensity: sends fell to 26 from 50 and projected reach dropped ~71% (~11M vs. ~37M), with discounted sends down to 19% of volume from 44% — last year’s window was saturated with an “extra 40% off” markdown campaign and 2-for-$69 bundle blasts that largely didn’t repeat. The one offset is a slightly deeper headline (up to 50% off summer sale vs. 40%), so the read is far lighter promotional pressure on fewer, deeper offers — directionally a discipline signal, though the steep reach drop may equally reflect pulled-back email investment for a brand that’s been a soft spot, rather than pure pricing strength.

Crocs (CROX) summary

Ran 2 commands, used 2 tools

Ran 2 commands, used 2 tools

Crocs (CROX) — promotional depth unchanged, email intensity lighter. Crocs ran the same discount playbook both years — 25–30% member/cart offers, “extra 30% off clearance,” buy-more-save-more, and an end-of-season clearance topping out at up to 60% off (peak 60% both periods) — so discount depth and strategy are flat YoY. What changed is cadence: in-window sends roughly halved (~82 vs. ~190) and projected reach fell ~23% (~91M vs. ~118M), heavily driven by fewer segmented/localized blasts. Net read: Crocs remains deeply and consistently promotional with no easing in markdown depth — the only shift is a less saturated send calendar, so effectively neutral on pricing posture rather than firmer.

Data through July 5

Promotional Outlier: Positive

Chipotle (CMG) — sharply less promotional than PY, with no change to its full-price model. Chipotle runs no menu discounts either year — its offers are loyalty mechanics (points, free add-ons) plus a recurring BOGO free-entrée — and this year it pulled all of that back hard: in-window sends fell to 46 from ~120, projected reach dropped ~69% (~31M vs. ~98M), and BOGO/steep offer sends dropped to 6 from ~26. Net read: a big reduction in promotional email intensity and free-entrée frequency with pricing untouched — directionally firmer, though the reach drop partly reflects lighter “Summer of Extras” loyalty cadence rather than any pricing shift.

Data through July 5

Promotional Outlier: Improving

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) — no meaningful discounting, and slightly firmer than PY. Projected reach was flat (~28M both years) on fewer sends (15 vs. 26), and the promotional mix shifted away from price: last year’s period ran an explicit “10% off” July 4th offer, whereas this year carried none — the holiday push leaned on sweepstakes and giveaways (“$1,000 free food & fuel,” “$250,000 for America’s 250th”) plus a free-dessert loyalty reward. Net read: Cracker Barrel remains effectively full-price and actually dropped its one small percentage-off offer in favor of non-discount engagement — a neutral-to-favorable signal on margin discipline rather than any move toward promotion.

Data through: July 5

Promotional Outlier: Worse

Slightly worse / more promotional than PY. Cadence and reach were essentially flat (14 sends both years, projected volume −7%), but Arhaus leaned harder on deep liquidation: steep-discount sends rose to 4 from 1 and the peak advertised offer ticked up to 70% from 65%, driven by repeated “up to 60% off clearance” and “up to 70% off floor samples” blasts plus a 30%-off $2,000+ threshold. Last year’s period led with a cleaner 30%-off-category “Fourth of July Sale” and just one clearance blast. The mitigant is that the deep marks are confined to clearance and floor samples (aged inventory) rather than full-price collections, so this reads as modest margin pressure / inventory-clearing rather than broad discounting — but directionally it’s a step weaker than the prior year