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ULTA: Inflection in Email Marketing

Acceleration in nearly every promotiponal email index conveys a change in strategy. Ulta appears increasingly reliant compared to past periods on ‘push’ discounts to beauty shoppers.

Random Walk Desperation Index, Steep Discount Index and Significant Discount Index are all either approaching or setting new highs this Spring.

New campaigns attempting to drive online engagement and conversion include:

“Open this email for FREE gifts and 50% off”



Desperation Index. Our new desperation index tracks growth in certain keywords within email campaigns such as “extended”, “free shipping”, “urgent” and “one more day” to name a few.

Steep Discount Index   Our systems classify any coupon with an implied discount 40% off or steeper as steep.  Recently Ulta has used much more 50% off language. 

Significant Discount Volumes Our significant discount index tracking any coupon impacting the price has also shown acceleration beyond seasonal norms.

ABNB: Bookings Appeared to Decelerate in September

All three of our datasets tracking ABNB confirmations were weak in September. The “reservation confirmed” dataset turned negative Y/Y during the last week in September after displaying strong Y/Y gains earlier in the month. Our tracking of “receipts” slowed as the month progressed, however the Y/Y trend remained positive. The “Welcome” dataset also displayed a consistent negative Y/Y trend.

Based on these confirmation datasets and slowing web traffic, we believe it’s likely that ABNB’s business slowed in September.