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Category Archives: Blog

Alternative Data Podcast- Promotional Ensemble History

Posted at 09 Sep 2024 , Blog, blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections

Random Walk has been serving investors for 14 years. After years of focusing on clicksteam, foot traffic data and other online measurement, in 2017 we shifted to focusing on creating the most quantitatively accurate promotional ensemble in the industry. As others used tractional data to incorrectly assess demand in department stores such as JC Penny, our process alerted investors that these sales were just a result of liquidation coupons.

Listen to learn more about our methodology is different than other big data providers below:

Greg’s chat with Mark Fleming-Williams on Apple Podcasts

Below: skyrocketing steep discounts and a rise in the effective discount uncover the inflection.

Promotional Ensemble for JC Penny: 2017 Liquidation coupon explosion inconsistent with a rebound in organic demand.

Random Walk Ensembe via Maiden Century

Posted at 09 Aug 2024 , Blog, blog, Greg Robin Random Walk

Uncover gross proift and gross margin inflections

Our promotional ensemble indices are now available through Maiden Century. For many brands spikes in email promotional activity have meaningful relationships with gross profit and gross margin.

https://maidencentury.com/article/predicting-the-impossible

ULTA: Inflection in Email Marketing

Posted at 02 Apr 2024 , Blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections

Acceleration in nearly every promotiponal email index conveys a change in strategy. Ulta appears increasingly reliant compared to past periods on ‘push’ discounts to beauty shoppers.

Random Walk Desperation Index, Steep Discount Index and Significant Discount Index are all either approaching or setting new highs this Spring.

New campaigns attempting to drive online engagement and conversion include:

“Open this email for FREE gifts and 50% off”

“FREE 4PC MAC Gift”

“FREE 17 PIECE SET”

Desperation Index. Our new desperation index tracks growth in certain keywords within email campaigns such as “extended”, “free shipping”, “urgent” and “one more day” to name a few.

Steep Discount Index   Our systems classify any coupon with an implied discount 40% off or steeper as steep.  Recently Ulta has used much more 50% off language. 

Significant Discount Volumes Our significant discount index tracking any coupon impacting the price has also shown acceleration beyond seasonal norms.

ABNB: Bookings Appeared to Decelerate in September

Posted at 04 Oct 2023 , Blog

All three of our datasets tracking ABNB confirmations were weak in September. The “reservation confirmed” dataset turned negative Y/Y during the last week in September after displaying strong Y/Y gains earlier in the month. Our tracking of “receipts” slowed as the month progressed, however the Y/Y trend remained positive. The “Welcome” dataset also displayed a consistent negative Y/Y trend.

Based on these confirmation datasets and slowing web traffic, we believe it’s likely that ABNB’s business slowed in September.