Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — more promotional than PY (margin-dilutive), a new sitewide coupon layered on the usual sale. This year Ulta added a broadly-distributed “20% off everything online” sitewide coupon (code PRIMETIME) stacked on top of its Big Summer Beauty Sale (up to 40% off 2,000+ products), broadcast at enormous reach (multiple 10–18M-reach storewide sends) — a lever largely absent a year ago, when discounting was confined to brand- and category-specific deals, BOGO 40–50%, and gift-with-purchase. The sale-item depth ceiling held at 40% and the gift-with-purchase and 5X-points loyalty scaffolding is unchanged in both windows, but in-window send cadence rose ~24% (159 vs. 128) and the sitewide coupon materially broadens effective discounting.
Materially more promotional than PY. The headline discount ceiling is unchanged at 50% off both years, but the saturation of discounting jumped sharply: this year roughly three-quarters of in-window sends carried the sale (an “Extra 50% off sale styles” event, “styles starting at $13,” “deeper discounts just taken”), with multiple ~10–11M-reach broadcasts all pushing 50% off. A year ago the same window was far more full-price and newness-weighted — only around a fifth of sends carried a coded discount, the 50%-off EOSS sale was layered under editorial/product content (new summer icons, the Oasis collab, fit guides), and several of the largest blasts were non-promotional. Net read: Levi’s shifted from a newness-led program with an end-of-season sale on top to a markdown-saturated one where an escalated “extra 50% off” clearance dominates nearly every send — a clear step up in promotional intensity and a negative signal for pricing power.
Here’s the Aerie (AEO) comparison — last two weeks (Jun 22–Jul 6, 2026) vs. the same window a year ago (Jun 22–Jul 6, 2025). Volumes are panel-projected send estimates from Random Walk’s email tracking.
Sending volume: Up modestly — 37 campaigns vs. 34 (+9%), ~22.2M projected sends vs. ~20.1M (+11%). Slightly higher cadence, no major change in reach.
Discount depth: Down sharply. Only 6 of 37 sends (16%) carried a discount this year vs. 11 of 34 (32%) last year. Peak advertised offer fell to 50% off from 70%, “steep” sends dropped to 2 from 6, and the cardholder bonus shrank to an extra 10–15% from an extra 30–40% in 2025.
Named sale: The July 4th event was rebranded and softened. This year it’s the “Beach to BBQ Sale” headlined by up to 50% off (one storewide send) plus a small Real Rewards cardholder add-on. Last year’s equivalent — the “Big Deal Sale” / “BBQs & Big Deals” — ran up to 70% off storewide with extra 30–40% cardholder stacking and category blowouts (40% off sports bras, 50% off dresses).
Analyst summary: Aerie modestly increased email cadence year-over-year (+9% campaigns, +11% projected volume) but pulled back materially on price, cutting discounted sends roughly in half (16% vs. 32% of emails) and lowering its peak Fourth-of-July offer to 50% off from 70%, with cardholder stacking trimmed to 10–15% from 30–40%. The holiday event was also rebranded from the deep “Big Deal Sale” to a lighter “Beach to BBQ Sale.” Net read: more emails but noticeably less promotional aggression — a shift toward protecting margin over driving discount-led volume.
We used the newly launched RW Claude Connector to ask if Shake Shack (SHAK) was modifying their email marketing strategy in recent months. Typically, brands present the narrative to investors that they are never discounting, but the Promotional Ensemble goes under the covers to detect if any sneaky changes in messaging or offers to key cohorts is occuring.
Are your research dollars allocated to detecting real inflections or have your overspent on predicting the present?
> Explosion in alternative data has led increased precision in predicting KPIs such as current quarter revenues and same store sales.
> Sudden share revaluations in brands such as DASH, MTCH, BROS, SIG, MODG and PLAY indicate significant opportunities remain in detecting organic inflections.
Above: Predicting an uncertain future, not overfitting the present. You’ll eat in: DASH, Your wont drive: TSLA,UBER, You wont go anywhere: DKNG, META, AMZN
Missing the Forest
The above advertisement from 1996 was prescient, but our promotional ensemble data can help investors better understand the tidal wave of changes that are occurring in real-time.
Institutional investors’ thirst for edge has led to overconsumption of complex ‘information’ that often misses the bigger shifts in preferences. Random Walk focuses on uncovering more actionable inflections based on changes in core demand for products and services through our Promotional Ensemble.
Stay Home and Swipe.
Perhaps mostly driven by 5G and engineered addiction of smart phones consumers are moving away from activities popular in the past. Dating, courtship, buying engagement rings and the products of Signet and marriage appear to be substituted by ordering Wingstop delivery on DoorDash and betting on sports with Draftkings.
Getting together and going out for in person entertainment at Topgolf or Dave & Busters is being replaced by swiping through Insta.
Random Walk Promotional Ensemble
When brands are struggling to generate demand the easiest and most cost effective band-aid is to blast out email discounts. This is where the Random Walk process provides unique edge. We have been capturing, categorizing and classifying millions of email promotions from leading brands for more than 7 years. If decaying inventory isn’t moving quick enough, without spending much on advertising, brands just push out escalating discounts to leads. Conversely, when organic demand is growing brands slow email campaigns.
DraftKings (DKNG): New deposit confirmations explode higher as consumers stay home and bet on sports.DoorDash (DASH): You’ll eat in. Doordash will bring food to you so you can stay inside. Our promotional ensemble indicates reduced incentives and email discounts as diners continue to grow rapidly.TopGolf (MODG): Interest in going out to TopGolf and shanking balls is waning as our promotional ensemble detects rapid growth in game play related gift cards and discounts.Dutch Brothers (BROS): Take it home no need for a cafe. Reduced promotional email volumes from Dutch Brothers
Random Walk has been serving investors for 14 years. After years of focusing on clicksteam, foot traffic data and other online measurement, in 2017 we shifted to focusing on creating the most quantitatively accurate promotional ensemble in the industry. As others used tractional data to incorrectly assess demand in department stores such as JC Penny, our process alerted investors that these sales were just a result of liquidation coupons.
Listen to learn more about our methodology is different than other big data providers below:
Our promotional ensemble indices are now available through Maiden Century. For many brands spikes in email promotional activity have meaningful relationships with gross profit and gross margin.
We’re capturing increased promotions from Crocs and Crocs wholesalers.
Promotions from Shoe Carnival containing “Crocs” were up 600% Y/Y in September. We also captured a new “Up to 40% off” Crocs promotion from Walmart last week.
We continue to capture significant email volume from Crocs.com containing “price drop” and prices have dropped,” language we didn’t capture at all last year.
Random Walk New Keyword Tracker Launched. Our new technology helps investors instantly detect changes in the promotional intensity brands are using to communicate with leads. Detect inflections in core demand through tracking of desperation keywords in emails such as “extra”, “extended”, and “one more day”.
Keyword tracker uncovered the largest ever spike in “Nike” related keywords from key wholesale partner email correspondance over the past two weeks.
PREVIEW: Promotional Outlier Focus: Nike Partners Sending Record Volume of Discount Campaigns ASO, DKS, FL, M, NKE, SCVL
Last quarter, Nike reported slowing revenue growth as consolidated revenue increased year-over-year by 5%, down from 14% year-over-year growth in the prior quarter. While total promotional activity direct from Nike is stable, we are capturing record breaking volumes of Nike coupons from wholesale partners implying lagging organic demand. We also anticipate a weak quarter for Foot Locker, which purchased 65% of its athletic merchandise from Nike during the most recent fiscal year.
NIKE PARTNER PROMOTIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Foot Locker (FL) sent record volumes of “Nike” focused promotions in July. We have tracked a 67% year-over-year increase in email volumes containing “Nike” for the May-July period
.Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) sent greater volumes of “Nike” focused promotions this Summer. We tracked a 49% year-over-year increase in email volumes containing “Nike” for the May-July period.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Shoe Carnival “Nike” focused promotion volume increased by 2,783% on a year-over-year basis for the May-July period.
Macy’s (M) We captured a rare “Special 20-25% off from Nike”.
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional
Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
