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Portfolio Categories Improving Trends

Largest Inflections: Strongest Growth & Worst Decliners

Updated weekly, our industry leading email intelligence tracks consumers in near real-time. Identify trends and inflections before earnings, and ahead of the street.

Q4: Strong Demand Fastest Rising
Q4: Tepid Demand, Steep Slowing

Q4 Improving Detailed List

Q4 Slowing Detailed List

Rising Discounts, Promotions Predict Reduced Guidance

Within our universe of nearly 300 names, our email intelligence identified several brands relying on record setting promotions and discount to drive traffic both online and in stores. Compared with prior years, total promotional volume, total steep discounts, total significant discounts were all at least 100-200% higher than year ago levels.

Our systems alert investors to these situations which have often signaled dramatically reduced guidance.

BBBY, DASH ,GPRO

Explosive Growth in Organic Demand

Over the past three weeks our email intelligence tracking the most accurate proxy of consumer activity has identified brands that are showing strong growth in email order confirmations, welcome emails or other similar.

Growth Outliers List

Weak Email Receipts, Confirmations Signal Miss

Tracking more than 1 million consumers, our ensemble has been successful at identifying severe slowdowns in demand for key goods and services.

(12) Our current list contains outliers that have shown dramatic deceleration in demand online.

Updated Slowing List

Holiday Trends Update

For many of the brands within our universe, data indicates stable trends in terms of organic traffic, email receipts, and new account confirmations.

This year, lapping one of the most unusual periods in history due to COVID, our ensemble has also uncovered a wide range of dispersions and outliers.

Promotional Index Launch

With more than 6 years of historical data tracking email promotional activity from nearly 300 consumer brands we are excited to launch our first data product!

This fall select clients can access structured weekly data for this first time.

Investors will be able to quantify and help answer the following:

  • Changes in campaign frequency
    • Did a brand run more marketing campaigns in order to drive sales?
    • Did a brand reduce campaigns as demand increases?
  • Growth in customer and lead lists
    • Has a business grown its lead list?
  • Intensity of promotional offers and discounts
    • Did the size of discount increase as a seasonal sale progressed?
    • Did the coupon specify a higher discount than prior periods?
  • Changes in promoted products
    • Are there changes in which products are being discounted?
  • Changes in targeting strategy
    • Is a brand struggling to hit sales quotas engaging in more “blasts” to its entire list?
Compare current promotional cadence with prior periods

AEO, ANF, GES: Promotional Ensemble Reveals Sharp Decline in Discounting

Our promotional email ensemble helped investors better understand and quantify the magnitude of changes in the intensity and aggressiveness that apparel brands such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), American Eagle (AE) and Guess (GES) are sending. As weather has warmed, our promotional ensemble reveals robust demand growth as consumers previously stuck at home load up on “going out” summer apparel.

Our promotional ensemble quantifies the changes such as key declines in the volume of email campaigns, the distribution discounts offered.

ANF: 93% decline in discounting email volume this May
Significant Promotion heat map measures changes weekly

Successfully channelling rebounding demand for swimwear, AEO’s Aerie has further throttled back its promotions.

Our tracking on an sector basis reveals AEO has become one of the least aggressive promotors compared with its peers compared with just a year ago.

For Guess, our email intelligence allows investors to quantify the exact campaign frequency and intensity. As can be seen below, Guess is pushing out significant promotions and discount coupons much less frequently than a year ago as organic demand has rebounded.

Random Walk Email Intelligence: Inflections Identified EBAY, ETSY

EBAY: More aggressive discounts in certain product categories

Our email intelligence uncovered a subtle, but critical change in the email sending patterns of EBAY.

During COVID as demand had risen to unprecedented levels, EBAY throttled back the frequency and intensity of their email campaigns and discounting.  However, this March our proprietary systems detected a reversal, with EBAY ramping up a specific type of email campaign containing discounting language unseen before.  As management began to see COVID demand wane, they began using steeper promotional language in specific product categories.  We identified this and warned our clients.  In ETSY our tracking of order confirmation volumes showed a significant sequential slowdown in April. 

Our ensemble has detected incredible, all-time high demand for car rentals(CAR) this spring as locked up Americans return to travel.  This has resulted in less time and interest than a year ago for stocking up the home on small electronics(BBY), home décor (BBBY, ETSY), at home fitness (NLS).   

Consumers go outside as garages overflow with kettlebells & stationary bikes

AEO, CWH ELY, LE, NLS, PTON, SEAS, SEAS

To start April our email intelligence is indicating potentially significant changes in consumer shopping behavior. Temperatures are warming, and coincident with a COVID positivity rate in California sinking to 1.5% the state is relaxing restrictions and Americans are looking to get out.

Our ensemble indicates sharp decelerations in ‘garage’ fitness equipment such as Bowflex, Nautilus and even Peloton. Have we finally maxed out our kettlebell collections? Our email intelligence tracking various order confirmations shows volumes near 6 month lows.

On the positive side, our email intelligence tracking ticket confirmations indicates the broader reopening of Sea World and Magic Mountain has generated explosive demand in getting out to the theme parks.

Our ‘Spotlight’ report focuses on identifying the bullish combination of declining promotional email activity coupled with rising organic online traffic. The names with the biggest strength share a common threat of getting outside. These include: AEO’s swimsuit line Aerie, ELY and Calloway’s new ‘Epic’ drivers and irons, LE with Land’s End outerwear and swim and CWH camping gear.

Spotlight: Bullish quadrant of declining email promotions and exploding organic online engagement