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Random Walk Promotional Ensemble Use Cases

Posted at 07 Sep 2023 , Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection

Random Walk email intelligence through our promotional ensemble delivers the most quantitative and predictive tracking of implied discounts and promotional cadence available.   When brands are struggling to generate organic demand they ramp up sending volume to their leads and customers. We capture these potential inflections in near real-time and alert our investor partners ahead of the street.

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 

TOTAL PROMOTIONAL VOLUME + 9%        GROSS MARGIN +460bps

  • Crocs (CROX)

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME +75%            GROSS MARGIN: -480bps

  • The Children’s Place (PLCE)  

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME +75%            GROSS MARGIN: -480bps

  • Farfetch Limited (FTCH)

SIGNIFICANT DISCOUNT VOLUME +127%       GROSS MARGIN -370bps

  • Foot Locker, Inc. (FL)

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME +79%           GROSS MARGIN: -460bps

  • Hibbett, Inc. (HIBB)

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME +108%           GROSS MARGIN: -160bps

  • Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX)

TOTAL PROMOTIONAL VOLUME +650%        GROSS MARGIN: -550bps

  • Petco (WOOF)

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME +780%           GROSS MARGIN: -140bps

  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME  +107%           GROSS MARGIN -110bps

  • Walmart Inc. (WMT)

STEEP DISCOUNT VOLUME-37%              GROSS MARGIN 40bps

ANF: Sharply declining total promotions translate to gross margin gains of 460bps
OLPX: Exploding total promotional volumes translate to forecast gross margin delcines of 600bps
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Random Walk Promotional Outlier Focus: Nike Partners Sending Record Discounts

Posted at 15 Aug 2023 , blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections
Random Walk New Keyword Tracker Launched.  Our new technology helps investors instantly detect changes in the promotional intensity brands are using to communicate with leads. Detect inflections in core demand through tracking of desperation keywords in emails such as “extra”, “extended”, and “one more day”.

Keyword tracker uncovered the largest ever spike in “Nike” related keywords from key wholesale partner email correspondance over the past two weeks.
 
PREVIEW: Promotional Outlier Focus: Nike Partners Sending Record Volume of Discount Campaigns
 ASO, DKS, FL, M, NKE, SCVL

Last quarter, Nike reported slowing revenue growth as consolidated revenue increased year-over-year by 5%, down from 14% year-over-year growth in the prior quarter. While total promotional activity direct from Nike is stable, we are capturing record breaking volumes of Nike coupons from wholesale partners implying lagging organic demand. We also anticipate a weak quarter for Foot Locker, which purchased 65% of its athletic merchandise from Nike during the most recent fiscal year.
 
NIKE PARTNER PROMOTIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
 Foot Locker (FL) sent record volumes of “Nike” focused promotions in July. We have tracked a 67% year-over-year increase in email volumes containing “Nike” for the May-July period

.Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) sent greater volumes of “Nike” focused promotions this Summer. We tracked a 49% year-over-year increase in email volumes containing “Nike” for the May-July period.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Shoe Carnival “Nike” focused promotion volume increased by 2,783% on a year-over-year basis for the May-July period.

Macy’s (M) We captured a rare “Special 20-25% off from Nike”.

Promotional Heatmaps by Subsector July 9

Posted at 16 Jul 2023 , blog, Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection
  • Mattresses experienced the fastest total promotional email volume growth last week.
  • Live entertainment continues to see the biggest decline for the past quarter in term of significant discounts.
  • Petcare is seeing fast rising significant discounts over the past quarter.
  • Footwear remains one of the more promotional subsectors in our coverage with 11 of 15 tickers recording substantially higher significant promotional volume YoY last week.
  • For the first time since March, Home Depot and Lowe’s both stayed out of “red” in the same week for increases in significant promotional volume. Both HD and LOW exhibited stable YoY total promotion volume.
  • Our Department Store index has captured a divergence between several well-known retailers with some ramping promotions and others now easing. Earlier this summer we tracked largely “worsening” trends.
  • Outdoor Apparel remains a longstanding member on the “worsening” list as all tickers in our index recorded increased total promotional volume YoY over the past two weeks.
  • Furniture demand continues to lag as total promotional volume is ~40% higher YoY and significant promotional volume was up 122% YoY in the week ended June 12.

NEW: Promotional Heat Maps by Subsector

Posted at 24 Jun 2023 , blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections

June 28

We recently launched a new product that examines trends of promotional activity within subsectors.

Highlights:

  • Footwear promotional volume continues to accelerate higher. 9 of the 13 tickers in our footwear index exhibited a “worsening” promotional trend last week with 12 of 14 worsening on a monthly basis.
  • Luxury Retail demand appears weak as significant promotional volume has worsened on a YoY rate of change basis at several major companies in our subsector index.
  • The Sporting Goods subsector has emerged as another addition to the worsening list. All 8 companies in this index have sent out substantially higher promotional volume in the most recent week compared to the prior year.
  • Outdoor Apparel promotions continue to stand out as significant promotion volume YoY growth for this subsector exceeded 100% in three consecutive weeks recently.
  • Demand doesn’t appear to be returning at home improvement retailers. Promotional volume is substantially higher at all 5 companies in our index compared to the prior year.

Ramping Promotional Campaigns in Home Goods Indicate Slowdown Accelerating

Posted at 27 Apr 2023 , blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections

BIG, FND, HD, LOW, LOVE, LZB, OSTK, RH,  W, WSM

 Matt Gordon
Greg Robin

 APRIL 20, 2023
Random Walk  Email intelligence suggests management is responding to fading organic demand in home furnishings and home improvement with more aggressive pushed offers to their leads lists this spring



Home and home furnishing related names have been more aggressive in sending promotions to leads this April compared to last, with Wayfair (W) and Pottery Barn(WSM) as standouts on our slowing list. Each had more faster ramps year-over-year promotion growth in significant discounts.

Home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) are dealing with declining demand in part by sending new and more frequent email promotions to leads. We also recently captured new spring holiday language unseen in prior years.




In terms of fastest growers of total email volumes Floor & Decor (FND) stands out.  Total promotional volume is a good way to measure concerns from brands that do not discount such as Restoration Hardware(RH).  As can be seen above, RH is sending more communications to leads, despite no significant discounts outside of the outlet.

Our updated promotional ensembles provide the most robust, quantitative and rigorous views of how brands are communicating with leads.


2022 Recap, Looking Ahead to 2023

Posted at 15 Jan 2023 , blog, Greg Robin Random Walk

2022 RECAP & LOOKING AHEAD
 

  • 2022 Trends: Chasing Precision with ‘Science’
  • Record IPOs Email Promotions, Unsustainable Growth
  • Investing to Improve our Processes
  • Inflections: Select Winners and Losers
  • Goals for 2023
For many of our inflections Street Consensus was inaccurate by more than 40%.

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Holiday Promotional Outliers

Posted at 01 Dec 2022 , Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection

Our promotional ensemble identified the biggest outliers of the period from several weeks before Black Friday through Cyber Week for our investor partners.

Standouts with previously unseen promotions, largest risers in discount campaigns, or those with robust organic demand that were able to reduce email volumes include:

AEO, COUR, CROX, CURV, GME, HIBB, LOVE, PVH, NKE, RH, SCVL, SONO, TPX, TSCO, URBN, VFC

Our email intelligence systems have been capturing tracking and classifying emails from leading brand for nearly 7 years providing the most robust, quantitative insight into email promotional activity. i

The quickest and cheapest method for management to respond to demand inflections is to adjust its cadence and intensity of email discounts.

AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) Both total promotional email volume and significant discounts nearly 30% lower than a year ago.

GAMESTOP (GME) Meteoric rise in BF related promotional activity with “$50 off x box” and “up to 60% off video games”.

HELLO FRESH (HLFF) Total promotional email volumes up nearly 300% driven by “$180 off Thanksgiving” and “get up to 70% off” discounts.

LOVESAC (LOVE) Steeper than year ago and higher volume significant discounts driven by “35% off Bundles”.

NIKE (NKE) Sequential and YoY declines in steep and significant discounts

VF CORP (VFC) Both North Face and Vans saw sharp rises in all categories of email promotions. Total inbox volumes, significant discounts, steep discounts and storewide promotions all rose to record highs.

contact us for to see the entire Holiday Promotional Outlier List

Rising Discounts, Promotions Predict Reduced Guidance

Posted at 15 Jul 2022 , Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection

Within our universe of nearly 300 names, our email intelligence identified several brands relying on record setting promotions and discount to drive traffic both online and in stores. Compared with prior years, total promotional volume, total steep discounts, total significant discounts were all at least 100-200% higher than year ago levels.

Our systems alert investors to these situations which have often signaled dramatically reduced guidance.

BBBY, DASH ,GPRO

Weak Email Order Confirmations Signal Miss

Posted at 14 Jul 2022 , Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection

Tracking more than 1 million consumers, our ensemble has been successful at identifying severe slowdowns in demand for key goods and services.

(12) Our current list contains outliers that have shown dramatic deceleration in demand online.

Updated Slowing List

EMAIL INTELLIGENCE UNCOVERS RECORD NUMBER OF PROMOTIONAL OUTLIERS

Posted at 06 Jul 2022 , Greg Robin Random Walk

Random Walk Email Intelligence has never identified more unusual promotional activity than over the past 30 days.   In June alone our systems have captured nearly 100 never seen before campaigns as consumer preferences shift.

HOME FURNISHING PROMOTIONS ACCELERATE TO NEW HIGHS

BIG, LOVE, W, WSM

In home furnishings our data indicates COVID pulled forward, not just several quarters but year’s worth of demand.  Now, with the backyard, garage space and wallets maxed out, consumers are shifting away from creating the perfect Instagram worthy at-home backyard oasis.

Random Walk Email Intelligence indicates record growth the discount campaigns in Q2 from Pottery Barn.

DEMAND FOR CASUAL ‘AT HOME’ FOOTWEAR FADING?

CROX, FL, SCVL

During COVID, Americans gobbled up footwear for the outdoors or comfort around the house casual footwear retailers benefitted and throttled back promotions.  However, this summer with consumers more spartan due to gas prices and $20 hamburgers they don’t appear to need so many sandals.

Crocs and Crocs retailers such as Foot Locker and Shoe Carnival have been blasting an all-time high volume of Croc’s specific discounts.

GET OUTDOORS ON THE ROAD MEETS $6 GAS

CWH, WGO, YETI

Without COVID checks, a free pass from work, and with $6 gas it appears road trip RV, van and mega SUV trips could be stalling.  Our email intelligence has tracked growth in promotional volumes for outdoor camping accessory related businesses such as Camping World, Winnebago, and Yeti.

Into summer camping season Camping World has blasted out an all-time high volume of significant and steep discounts.

Our data visualizations allow quick identification of outliers within a specific sector.  Find out which brands are losing organic demand and responding with increased “push” discounting campaigns to their leads

Download the pdfhttps://ranwalk.com