Category Archives: Reopening Trends

Random Walk Email Intelligence: Inflections Identified EBAY, ETSY

EBAY: More aggressive discounts in certain product categories

Our email intelligence uncovered a subtle, but critical change in the email sending patterns of EBAY.

During COVID as demand had risen to unprecedented levels, EBAY throttled back the frequency and intensity of their email campaigns and discounting.  However, this March our proprietary systems detected a reversal, with EBAY ramping up a specific type of email campaign containing discounting language unseen before.  As management began to see COVID demand wane, they began using steeper promotional language in specific product categories.  We identified this and warned our clients.  In ETSY our tracking of order confirmation volumes showed a significant sequential slowdown in April. 

Our ensemble has detected incredible, all-time high demand for car rentals(CAR) this spring as locked up Americans return to travel.  This has resulted in less time and interest than a year ago for stocking up the home on small electronics(BBY), home décor (BBBY, ETSY), at home fitness (NLS).   

Consumers go outside as garages overflow with kettlebells & stationary bikes

AEO, CWH ELY, LE, NLS, PTON, SEAS, SEAS

To start April our email intelligence is indicating potentially significant changes in consumer shopping behavior. Temperatures are warming, and coincident with a COVID positivity rate in California sinking to 1.5% the state is relaxing restrictions and Americans are looking to get out.

Our ensemble indicates sharp decelerations in ‘garage’ fitness equipment such as Bowflex, Nautilus and even Peloton. Have we finally maxed out our kettlebell collections? Our email intelligence tracking various order confirmations shows volumes near 6 month lows.

On the positive side, our email intelligence tracking ticket confirmations indicates the broader reopening of Sea World and Magic Mountain has generated explosive demand in getting out to the theme parks.

Our ‘Spotlight’ report focuses on identifying the bullish combination of declining promotional email activity coupled with rising organic online traffic. The names with the biggest strength share a common threat of getting outside. These include: AEO’s swimsuit line Aerie, ELY and Calloway’s new ‘Epic’ drivers and irons, LE with Land’s End outerwear and swim and CWH camping gear.

Spotlight: Bullish quadrant of declining email promotions and exploding organic online engagement

ABNB, BKNG, EXPE: Travel bookings returning as vaccine rolls out?

EXPE- Hotels.com email booking confirmations fail to stabilize into 2021.

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