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Greg Robin Insights

RH: Demand Rollover Revealed

Posted at 04 Apr 2026 , Greg Robin Random Walk
RH: Promotional Email March Madness
MARCH 31, 2026Restoration Hardware (RH) reported  worse than expected sales, earnings and provided a tepid outlook. 

Since our system uncovered and alerted investors to the inflection in late January, shares have collapsed 50%.

Most aligned with our process, RH guided Q1 revenues nearly $90 mm below consensus.   Our promotional ensemble revealed a reversal in the controlled promotional volumes we tracked late last year.   This Spring, we uncovered rapidly ramping campaign volumes and discounting language.  Instead of 1-2 campaigns a week, in March we tracked near daily push offers.  

Intensity also ramped, with our systems capturing escalating language with more 70% discounts, culminating in near daily offers the past 14 days. 

 Random Walk Promotional Dashboard
As can be seen below, our ensemlbe triggered a code ‘red’ incicating steep 70% or higher discount language in the subject line. 

Reviewing Key Indices
As can be seen below investors receiving our weekly index data were alerted to sharp deviations in two key indices: Total, and Steep,

  • Total Index after several quarters of stability ramped back above PY levels
  • Steep Index further validated a change in how management was viewing demand.

 ‘March Madness’ Promotional Calendar 
Our heat map detects the explosive growth in blasts and campaign frequency to leads with a disastrous end of March panic

Unprecedented Discounts Help Predict Weak Outlooks

Posted at 25 Feb 2026 , Blog

The signal we are typically most focused on providing our investor partners is when brands change how they communicate with their leads and customers. Ramping up email marketing is often the cheapest and easiest way to engage customers. When brands are struggling, instead of posting a discount publicly on the website, they can target specific segments and cohorts.

For the case of brands like Crocs, we see this often in the form of “we miss you” type emails. Growth in these type of emails helped us uncover a structural slowdown in demand for Crocs in the Unites States.

Above we note that prior to 2024, Crocs never sent these type of storewide 30% off coupons. This inflection was missed by the street because transactional data, and website scraping failed to detect this behavioral change.

Looking at another example this year, we see below our our promotional ensemble detected new escalating discount intensity from Peloton. Despite noise about a turnaround and confidence to investors, behind the scenes management was escalting the discounts.

Above we see rare growth in $1500 off for Peleton bikes and treadmills.

Sometimes changes in keywords are more sutble. But this is often the most interesting use-case. Many premium brands present themselves as not having to discount. However, again, behind the scenes they are escalating their promotional intensity.

Here we can see Canada Goose, as they were likely noticing slack demand, they ramped their Winter promotional campaigns.

TPR: Coach continues hot streak as promos evaporate

Posted at 06 Feb 2026 , Case Study, Greg Robin Random Walk, Positive Inflection

Another unbelievably strong quarter from Tapestry as consumer preferences further shift towards Coach. This has been an exciting one for Random Walk as continued sharp declines in email promotional campaigns have predicted this robust growth.

From the time our system tracked declining volumes of clearance emails and steep discounts shares are now up more than 110%!

Today’s Q2 results featuring 25% growth in Coach and strong gains in margins further validate our mission: when brands see robust organic growth, they quickly respond by reducing promotional email campaigns.

Our new dashboard shows every critical category from significant discounts to our clearance index in sharp decline. What an outlier!

Bath & Body Works (BBWI) vs Walmart(WMT): Diverging Preferences Revealed

Posted at 20 Nov 2025 , Blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection

With rampant inflation continuing to chew into consumers purchasing power, we continue to see a shift away from demand for discretionary knick-knacks towards critical household staples including food and clothing. The diverging promotional growth patterns in BBWI and WMT make this trend apparent.

>  BBWI forecast high single digit declines for the critical Q4 holiday quarter, noting a challenging  start to holiday shopping beginning in Q3 … highly competitive environment”.

>. BBWI management’s final comment directly aligns the the email campaigns we tracked “…our customers are waiting for deeper discounts before making purchases.”

> Gross Profit Rate declined  220 basis points as management noted “increased promotional activity to clear inventory”.

> Walmart (WMT) vs Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Not all retailers are exploding their promotional campaigns and email volumes.  As seen below WMT total volumes actually declined into peak shopping season as consumer preferences shifted towards cost effective core needs and away from discretionary scented candles and bubbles..

We captured explosive growth in 75% off campaigns from BBWI

Additionally BBWI was forced to grow BOGO campaigns by nearly 300%

Royal Caribbean RCL: Increased email campaigns precede revenue miss

Posted at 30 Oct 2025 , Case Study, Negative Inflections

>. Our promotional ensemble was successful in detecting the revenue miss and underwhelming guidance.
> In recent weeks total campaign volume has accelerated to new all-time highs.   
>Our index for  dollar amounts off and high dollar incentives have been above or near Black Friday levels for the past quarter. 

Steve discusses how our promotional ensemble revealed changes in how Royal was enticing cruisers

CMG, CAKE CAVA, CBRL, MCD, YUM: Unusual Email Campaigns

Posted at 22 Sep 2025 , Blog, Case Study, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections

Our promotional ensemble was successful in detecting the inflection in Chipotle and Cava. As organic demand slowed both ‘bowl’ sellers began offering more and more freebies to their most loyal customers. Additionally, “new” product promotions and deals were send to a higher percentage of their lists. Instead of select targeted campaigns, massive blasts triggered our promotional ensemble.

Steve discussed the unusual activity in the restaurant sector

American Eagle, Sydney Sweeney & Email Discount Index

Posted at 04 Sep 2025 , Greg Robin Random Walk, Positive Inflection
Steve discusses how the Random Walk Promotional Ensemble improved after the Sydney Sweeney campaign.

Systematic Scan of Millions of Emails to Detect Inflections

Posted at 09 Apr 2025 , blog, Blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections, Positive Inflection
  • This week our system detected unusual activity in: CBRL, CRI, LEN, LULU, PZZA, SIG, ULTA, W
  • Our process helps discover brands that are struggling to move product and resorting to changing keywords in campaigns
  • Robust panel access helps reveal discounts sent to specific cohorts that are ‘invisible’ to coupon clippers on the sell-side
  • 8 year history enables comparisons vs other outlier periods such as COVID

Consumer Preferences are Shifting is Your Investment Process?

Posted at 27 Feb 2025 , blog, Blog, Greg Robin Random Walk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

Are your research dollars  allocated to detecting real inflections or have your overspent on predicting the present?

> Explosion in alternative data has led increased precision in predicting KPIs such as current quarter revenues and same store sales.

> Sudden share revaluations in brands such as DASH, MTCH, BROS, SIG, MODG and PLAY indicate  significant opportunities remain in detecting organic inflections.

Above: Predicting an uncertain future, not overfitting the present. You’ll eat in: DASH, Your wont drive: TSLA,UBER, You wont go anywhere: DKNG, META, AMZN 

Missing the Forest

The above advertisement from 1996 was prescient, but our promotional ensemble data can help investors better understand the tidal wave of changes that are occurring in real-time.

Institutional investors’ thirst for edge has led to overconsumption of complex ‘information’ that often misses the bigger shifts in preferences.  Random Walk focuses on uncovering more actionable inflections based on changes in core demand for products and services through our Promotional Ensemble.

Stay Home and Swipe.

Perhaps mostly driven by 5G and engineered addiction of smart phones consumers are moving away from activities popular in the past. Dating, courtship, buying engagement rings and the products of Signet and marriage appear to be substituted by ordering Wingstop delivery on DoorDash and betting on sports with Draftkings.

Getting together and going out for in person entertainment at Topgolf or Dave & Busters is being replaced by swiping through Insta.

Random Walk Promotional Ensemble

When brands are struggling to generate demand the easiest and most cost effective band-aid is to blast out email discounts. This is where the Random Walk process provides unique edge. We have been capturing, categorizing and classifying millions of email promotions from leading brands for more than 7 years. If decaying inventory isn’t moving quick enough, without spending much on advertising, brands just push out escalating discounts to leads. Conversely, when organic demand is growing brands slow email campaigns.

DraftKings (DKNG): New deposit confirmations explode higher as consumers stay home and bet on sports.
DoorDash (DASH): You’ll eat in.  Doordash will bring food to you so you can stay inside. Our promotional ensemble indicates reduced incentives and email discounts as diners continue to grow rapidly.
TopGolf (MODG):  Interest in going out to TopGolf and shanking balls is waning as our promotional ensemble detects rapid growth in game play related gift cards and discounts.
Dutch Brothers (BROS): Take it home no need for a cafe.  Reduced promotional email volumes from Dutch Brothers

Alternative Data Podcast- Promotional Ensemble History

Posted at 09 Sep 2024 , Blog, blog, Greg Robin Random Walk, Negative Inflections

Random Walk has been serving investors for 14 years. After years of focusing on clicksteam, foot traffic data and other online measurement, in 2017 we shifted to focusing on creating the most quantitatively accurate promotional ensemble in the industry. As others used tractional data to incorrectly assess demand in department stores such as JC Penny, our process alerted investors that these sales were just a result of liquidation coupons.

Listen to learn more about our methodology is different than other big data providers below:

Greg’s chat with Mark Fleming-Williams on Apple Podcasts

Below: skyrocketing steep discounts and a rise in the effective discount uncover the inflection.

Promotional Ensemble for JC Penny: 2017 Liquidation coupon explosion inconsistent with a rebound in organic demand.