Chipotle (CMG): Promotional Ensemble Reveals Deteriorating Demand Ahead of Reduced Outlook

   24 Jul 2025

Chipotle reported disappointing key metrics notably sharp declines in same store sales and reduced its comp foreast to flat for the year.  As often seen when organic demand declines, new promotions and strategies are hailed as successes such as the the recent “Summer of Extras”.  

The Random Walk Promotional ensemble ignores optimistic narratives pitched by management and uses an email sending data-driven methodology.  Our ensemble detected record breaking promotional email volumes and huge growth in our “desperation discount” category often triggered by declines in organic demand.