27 Feb 2025

Cava (CAVA): Management ramps emails ahaed of reduced growth forecast.

February, 2025

 Cava’s reduced growth outlook was undetected by revenue tracking transactional data.

>Q4 same store stales growth of 21% was well anticipated via transactional alt data.  However, the dramatic decline in SSS growth down to 7% for 2025 was a blind spot for expensive alt-data.

> Our promotional ensemble detected massive and persistent growth in email campaigns to start the year.

>Cava ranked among the highest growers of total email volumes compared to PY in January.

>As demand slowed management also responded with more “$3 off” campaigns our system revealed.

> Shares have collapsed nearly 40% in less than a month since our outlier report alerted our investor partners