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Greg's Insights · Consumer shifts

Consumer preferences are shifting. Is your investment process?

Are your research dollars going to detecting real inflections, or have you overspent on predicting the present?

Greg RobinFeb 27, 2025
"The explosion in alternative data has led to increased precision in predicting KPIs such as current-quarter revenues and same-store sales."
"Sudden share revaluations in brands such as DASH, MTCH, BROS, SIG, MODG and PLAY indicate significant opportunities remain in detecting organic inflections."
Missing the forest

A 1996 ad saw it coming

An advertisement from 1996 predicted an uncertain future rather than overfitting the present. Its promises map neatly onto today's market:

You'll eat inDASH
You won't driveTSLA · UBER
You won't go anywhereDKNG · META · AMZN

The ad was prescient, but our promotional ensemble data can help investors understand the tidal wave of change as it happens, in real time.

Institutional investors' thirst for edge has led to overconsumption of complex "information" that often misses the bigger shifts in preferences. Random Walk focuses on uncovering more actionable inflections, based on changes in core demand for products and services, through our Promotional Ensemble.

Stay home and swipe

Going out is being replaced by staying in

Driven perhaps mostly by 5G and the engineered addiction of smartphones, consumers are moving away from activities that were popular in the past. Dating, courtship, buying engagement rings from Signet and marriage appear to be giving way to ordering Wingstop delivery on DoorDash and betting on sports with DraftKings.

Getting together for in-person entertainment at Topgolf or Dave & Buster's is being replaced by swiping through Instagram.

Random Walk Promotional Ensemble

Discounts are the easiest band-aid

When brands struggle to generate demand, the easiest and most cost-effective band-aid is to blast out email discounts. This is where the Random Walk process provides a unique edge. We have been capturing, categorizing and classifying millions of email promotions from leading brands for more than seven years.

If decaying inventory isn't moving quickly enough, brands push escalating discounts to their leads without spending much on advertising. Conversely, when organic demand is growing, brands slow their email campaigns.

DKNG▲ Demand rising
New deposit confirmations exploded higherConsumers are staying home and betting on sports.
DASH▼ Easing
Fewer incentives and email discountsDoorDash brings food to you so you can stay inside, and its diner base keeps growing rapidly.
MODG▲ Intensifying
Game-play gift cards and discounts growing fastInterest in going out to Topgolf is waning.
BROS▼ Easing
Reduced promotional email volumeTake it home: no need for a café.

Brand signals from the Random Walk Promotional Ensemble as of February 2025. Not investment advice.

See inflections as they form

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